وضعیت اقتصادی آمریکا

ورد زبان همه از جمله بن برنانکی (رئیس فدرال رزرو) این است که اقتصاد آمریکا با بحران روبروست. علی حیدری در مطلب جالب و بامزه زیر دیدگاه متفاوتی را عرضه می کند.

Almost every politician and human being, market analyzer, and most of economists says we are in a recession. The link you forwarded shared the same concern.
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_16/b4080000602263.htm?chan=search

m
y view on American economy:

have a look at this cartoon and then continue:
http://bp3.blogger.com/_otfwl2zc6Qc/R_zCXA1dm0I/AAAAAAAAELI/1_MFPPBnK8g/s1600-h/cartoon.jpg

1- Consumer Expenditures: I think he was a little bit selective on items to NOT show the whole picture. anyway:
Americans don’t travel to Europe because of weak dollar: it makes more sense to have fun in Denver or New York.
food and clothes (and in general all non-durable consumption) don’t change that much by recession or temporary income fluctuation. they depend on prices and seasonal preferences. I guess food was relatively a little bit cheaper and people spend more money on fashion in summer.
Vehicles› spending is less because of high oil prices (and effect of winter demand on them).
People spend less in alcoholic beverages, gambling, jewelry and more on bank services because it’s time to pay off the loans and credit cards. It’s very good signal that people spend wisely.

2- Real Economy: Actually the national accounts is in a better way than before:
http://www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/TableView.asp?SelectedTable=1&FirstYear=2006&LastYear=2007&Freq=Qtr#
as you see the only item that may concern is residential investment (housing) which means after very long time of buying and renovating houses by very low interest rate, it’s time to not buy houses (the price is so high and loans aren’t that cheap to cover it).
Investments, Exports, Durable spending are very good. how about industrial production index. have a look  (it’s not bad):
http://bp1.blogger.com/_djgssszshgM/SAZI3b8kZjI/AAAAAAAAAVI/ZtN8tu4M87w/s1600-h/inudstrial+production.png

3- Financial Sector, Loans and Credits: some say the main problem is that because of sup-prime mortgage crisis and consumer debts, bank are out of money or they can’t find sources to invest. They are loosing old high risk mortgages and also loosing profit because of stock prices but business investment and other source of investment (education, furniture, off-shore investing and …) are strong enough to help them out.
http://bp2.blogger.com/_otfwl2zc6Qc/SAdUiKCFA8I/AAAAAAAAER8/wK_If_-o8hE/s1600-h/loans.png
http://bp0.blogger.com/_otfwl2zc6Qc/SADAjZgtfrI/AAAAAAAAENg/U4uoLT5gjFM/s1600-h/credit.bmp
http://bp0.blogger.com/_otfwl2zc6Qc/R_OxyuFFtnI/AAAAAAAAEIg/NRUJs1QXM2I/s1600-h/totalcredit.png
http://bp1.blogger.com/_otfwl2zc6Qc/R_Oxy-FFtoI/AAAAAAAAEIo/Y-4IKr8e2GQ/s1600-h/totalloans.png
even mortgage crisis has passed the peak time and it’s going to be better.

4- Job market: is not working well but wait a minute, it’s not the first time in Bush period that job market performing poor while the economy is doing well. The story is that the productivity rate in Bush period is higher than any other recent period. even more than 90’s and Information Technology era and even more than 80’s and the era of «American economy is coming back». and I guess it’s going to happen again. factories and businesses laying off employees while improving the productivity and cutting down expenses. they fire old and retired employees (baby boom old boys) while NOT hiring unskilled employees. How do they handle the business, I don’t know. and don’t forget that 5.1% or even 5.5% is really full employment condition. Have a look at these graphs:
http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?data_tool=latest_numbers&series_id=PRS85006092
http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?data_tool=latest_numbers&series_id=LNS14000000
http://bp3.blogger.com/_otfwl2zc6Qc/R_rT_uFFt6I/AAAAAAAAEK4/xhuWSPXTq4E/s1600-h/med.png
http://bp3.blogger.com/_otfwl2zc6Qc/R_eC9eFFtvI/AAAAAAAAEJg/WdNSrtWrunA/s1600-h/unrate.bmp

5- At the end, economy is doing well, it’s reducing the home prices (which is over priced), depreciating dollar value (had been over priced and it’s time for Americans to export more and import less), forcing consumer to spend carefully and save more (which they really need), investing on businesses and technology, improving productivity, pushing people to get skill. If economy says it’s time to slow down or go to recession, it’s absolutely right. nobody knows better (and I really don’t understand when people don’t want to buy and they do want to save and pay the loans off, how the «falling money out of helicopter» can change their decision). the big concern is not recession, it’s the sections which government keeps them out of the reach of the free market forces: Government expenditures, Gov deficit (which is getting better), Public Schools, Health care  expenses (through Medicare, Medicaid, employment insurances, regulations on supply side of medical services),Foreign policy, defense policy and social security.
http://bp0.blogger.com/_otfwl2zc6Qc/R_myoOFFt2I/AAAAAAAAEKY/nkrtq1v8DJY/s1600-h/cartoon.bmp

2 دیدگاه

  1. saleh said,

    آوریل 21, 2008 در 8:16 ب.ظ.

    سلام عليكم و رحمه الله. برادر، اين علي ِ حيدري، همان علي ِ حيدري ِ «آقا اجازه» ست. ما يك سابقه ي سلام و عليك ي با ايشون داشتيم، اگر يادتون باشه، كه البته بعد از مدتي هم رد ايشون رو گم كرديم. الان هم كه وبلاگ قديم شون رو مي بينم، جا تره و بچه نيست. يعني بچه هست، مال ِ فروردين ِ هشتاد و شيش اه، به عبارتي! خلاصه فكري شده بودم، گفتم حالا كه از اين جا رد مي شم بپرسم. دعا بريز ايد قربان

  2. ehsan said,

    آوریل 22, 2008 در 2:35 ب.ظ.

    نحلیل جالبی بود. بعد از مدتها یک تحلیلی خوندم که به جنبه های مثبت اقتصاد آمریکا هم نگاهی داشته و اینکه شرایط اقتصادی امروز آمریکا رو خیلی بحران زده مطرح نکرده. اون کاریکاتور هم که از financial reporter گذاشته خیلی جالب بود. آدم تحلیل بیشتر این تحیلل گرهای اقتصادی رو که می خونه شک میکنه که آیا اگه فردا از خواب بلند شد آمریکایی وجود داره یا نه!


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